The following alternative supply management strategies are based upon existing regulated and non-regulated energy industry environments and can be implemented at any time without regulatory restriction or penalty:
Alternative A - COST STABILIZATION is a strategy designed to offer the consumer price stability and price certainty over a period of time. This strategy is accomplished by locking into a "fixed" futures price for natural gas supply and transmission services across a future specified period (i.e. multi month or multi year contract) via a non-regulated energy supplier. Cost stabilization is most applicable for consumers with a need or desire to:
- Limit the upside of per unit cost exposure (i.e. price cap)
- Forecast the cost of energy for a future period, and
- Budget the cost of energy for a future period.
Pros:
- Offers price stability and price certainty across a future period
- Allows for high accuracy in cost forecasting and budgeting
Cons:
- Cost benefit is highly dependent on market timing of price "lock." Buyer is exempt from both upward and downward market trends for term of contract
- Requires frequent monitoring of future market conditions for next price "lock" to insure against missed market opportunities
- Generally results in a higher service fee from energy provider to offset cash flow and collections risk born by future cost of unpaid energy supply and transmission service
- Does not allow for conversion to indexed, or variable price option within same contract period or term
Alternative B - COST AVERAGING is a strategy designed to offer the consumer a consistent average of the market yield on a day-to-day or month-to-month basis. This strategy is accomplished by floating or "indexing" your price against the real-time or "spot" markets on an hourly, daily, or monthly settlement basis via a non-regulated energy supplier. Cost averaging is most applicable for consumers with a need or desire to:
- Not be second-guessed on the timing of their purchase decision,
- Capture the actual market yield vs. "guessing" what will be the best price, and
- Purchase large quantities of electricity or gas on a consistent basis (i.e. daily or monthly).
Pros:
- Removes "market timing" issues as pricing reflects market index
- Averages market costs on a more consistent basis (i.e. monthly vs. annually)
- Consistent market averaging generally out-performs annualized fixed pricing efforts by the average consumer over the long term (i.e. 3-5+ years).
- Generally results in a lower service fee from energy provider as there is no future cash flow and collections risk associated with outstanding energy supply and transmission service
- Allows for conversion to fixed-price option within same contract period or term
Cons:
- Allows minimal accuracy in cost forecasting and budgeting
- Offers minimal price stability and price certainty across a future period
Alternative C - COST STABILIZATION AND COST AVERAGING HYBRID is a strategy designed to offer the consumer with a blend of fixed and variable pricing benefits with less timing- and budgeting risk than any single individual strategy can offer. This strategy is accomplished by customizing a purchasing strategy to the actual supply and transmission requirements of the consumer that will yield particular benefits at particular times (i.e. fixed price option during peak winter months with a variable option for the off-peak summer months) vs. one strategy all the time. The cost stabilization and averaging mix is most applicable for consumers with a need or desire to:
- Diversify multi-account or large commercial energy portfolios,
- Maximize both cost stabilization and reduction on a consistent basis, and
- Hedge their purchasing positions with multiple strategies and timing elements.
Pros:
- Balances fixed price stability with variable price averaging (i.e. long-term and short-term balance)
- Stabilizes overall portfolio against over-exposure to any one market risk (i.e. timing and volatility)
- Allows for customized application of both cost stabilization and cost averaging within same contract period
- Affords more frequent cost correction via increased diversity of transaction timing and type
Cons:
- Requires frequent monitoring of market conditions to appropriately assess existing and future market opportunities
- Cost benefits are still subject to a limited mix of market timing risk, limited price forecasting, and cost budgeting